The Duterte Effect: Why Critics of Duterte Lost Big in the 2025 Philippine Elections

The “Duterte Effect” has once again made waves in the Philippine political landscape. Despite facing an active investigation from the International Criminal Court (ICC), former President Rodrigo Duterte pulled off a remarkable comeback by winning the mayoral race in Davao City—proving that his influence is still very much alive.

But his victory is only half the story. The other half is a political bloodbath for those who were loudest in opposing him. The 2025 elections have become a referendum not just on candidates—but on how far one could go criticizing Duterte without electoral backlash.

What is the Duterte Effect?

The Duterte Effect is a term that describes the continuing political impact of Rodrigo Duterte, even years after his presidency. It manifests in two powerful ways:

His own surprising political victories, like his 2025 Davao mayoralty win.
The electoral downfall of his vocal critics—especially those who built their platforms around opposing his leadership.

Big Losses: Who Opposed Duterte and Paid the Price?

Several high-profile political figures who consistently criticized Duterte were handed defeat in the May 12, 2025 elections. Here are the most notable:

1. Antonio “Sonny” Trillanes IV

Position Sought: Mayor of Caloocan City
Outcome: Defeated
Why It Matters: Trillanes has been one of Duterte's most relentless critics, leading Senate inquiries and calling for international accountability. Voters, however, turned their backs on him in 2025.

2. France Castro

Position Sought: Senator
Outcome: Lost
Why It Matters: A strong voice in the Makabayan bloc, Castro frequently challenged Duterte’s war on drugs and red-tagging policies.

3. Arlene Brosas

Position Sought: Senator
Outcome: Lost
Why It Matters: Like Castro, Brosas has been a progressive firebrand who opposed many of Duterte's policies, including anti-terror laws and foreign interference.

4. Teodoro “Teddy” Casiño

Position Sought: Senator
Outcome: Lost
Why It Matters: The former Bayan Muna representative and activist lost traction in a political landscape that still reveres Duterte’s image.

5. Benny Abante

Position Sought: Congressman (Manila's 6th District)
Outcome: Defeated
Why It Matters: Though conservative, Abante broke from the pro-Duterte narrative and supported some forms of international accountability.

6. Stella Luz Quimbo

Position Sought: Mayor of Marikina
Outcome: Lost
Why It Matters: An economist and former representative, Quimbo criticized Duterte’s pandemic response and economic populism.

7. Marcelino “Nonoy” Libanan

Position Sought: Reelection as House Minority Leader
Outcome: Lost
Why It Matters: He was a key opposition voice in Congress and paid the price at the polls.

Why Did They Lose? Dissecting the Duterte Effect

Populist Loyalty Over Policy

Many voters remain fiercely loyal to Duterte, seeing him as a symbol of strong leadership and order. Criticizing him still comes with political consequences, especially in areas where his name holds weight.

“Martyr” Image of Duterte

With the ICC probe ongoing, Duterte's camp framed him as a nationalist hero being persecuted by foreign powers. This “martyrdom” narrative only increased sympathy and support among Filipino voters.

Political Machinery and Dynasty Power

The Duterte family remains a powerhouse. Sara Duterte, despite facing impeachment, continues to have significant public backing. Meanwhile, Sebastian and Paolo Duterte won their respective races in Davao. Their dynasty is alive and thriving.

What’s Next for the Opposition?

Opposition forces will need to rethink their strategy. If the 2025 elections taught us anything, it’s that attacking Duterte is no longer a guaranteed path to victory. Moving forward, they must find new ways to connect with the electorate—perhaps by shifting from blame to solutions.

Final Thoughts

The Duterte Effect is not just a trend—it’s a signal that Duterte’s legacy still looms large. While critics may dismiss it as populist momentum, the numbers don’t lie. Duterte’s influence remains one of the most powerful forces in Philippine politics today.

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